More Reds transactions

From the Reds on Monday:

Reinstated from the 60-day disabled list: RHP Homer Bailey, C Devin Mesoraco, SS Zack Cozart and RHP Jon Moscot.

Outrighted to Louisville: RHP Sam LeCure.

Declined the 2016 contract options on RHP Burke Badenhop and IF/OF Skip Schumaker.

Schumaker had a $2.5 million club option for 2016 with a $500,000 buyout while Badenhop had $4 million mutual option for 2016 with a $1.5 million buyout.

LHP Sean Marshall, LHP Manny Parra and C Brayan Pena became free agents.


Not a surprise among these moves. Getting rid of a lot of expensive, dead wood.

I pretty much agree with all who were released, except LeCure and Pena. LeCure was a pretty serviceable middle reliever and I doubt if the Reds will locate another who is that reliable. Pena, I thought, worked well with the young pitchers and he got on base a lot. The new catcher who came up late in the season looks like he might be a pretty reliable hitter.

Sorry to sse the experienced lefty Parra go. They’ll miss Pena’s leadership and upbeat personality in the clubhouse, I’m sure. All the other cut players so far this offseason will not be missed.

Pena is a free agent now. And, with Mesoraco coming back, and Barnhart looking
all the part of a back-up catcher, there is really no room nor reason for the Reds to attempt to sign Pena. He did an admirable job, but his time with the Reds is over.

He has some limited experience at third base earlier in his career. If he could play 3B, he’d be a great corner-infielder bench guy, not to mention emergency catcher and pinch-hitter. He seemed to play and act like I imagined I would have, if I had been blessed with any baseball talent! Some shrewd GM is going to sign Pena for sure.

Peanut boy oh so disappointed to see him go. Lots more to go

Mesoroco and Barnhart can handle the catching besides Pena was nothing but a singles hitter drove in very few runs alot like Hanigan. A little surprised with Badenhop. But i think the more this team pulls away from last years poor season the easier it will be to move on with new players and change the culture of the team . Jocketty has his work cut out for him to rebuild the bull pen. I just noticed Broxton was released by the Cardinals maybe they could bring him back

Jockety sign an ex-Cardinal? Tony D, you’re dreaming!

Dreaming lol . Let’s see he has signed
Scott Rolan Skip Schumaker Ryan Ludwick to name a few . Dreaming
No I think you obviously forgot how often he has resorted to that

Jim Edmonds comes to mind

Would like to see Pena kept in the organization perhaps as a coach in the farm system. The others by and large good riddance.

yes Edmonds is another one apparenty MAXBLUE doesnt know what he is talking about

Maxblue was being facetious; the meaning behind his post has become a board joke the past several seasons. We all know how partial Jocketty has been picking through the junk pile of older x-Cards.

Oh ok well this is why I think the job has passed up Jocketty . Not sure Castellini
realizes this. He is in over his head. He resorts to former Cardinals players too often
and the Cardinals, Pirates and now the Cubs have passed us up by being more open minded about using sabremetrics and being willing to let go of underperforming players like Bruce Hamilton etc.

2015 in Review: The B in OBP does not stand for Billy Hamilton
By Wick Terrell  @wickterrell on Oct 30, 2015, 2:30p 42

By The Numbers

454 PA, .226/.274/.289, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 55 OPS+, 57 SB, 1.0 bWAR, 1.9 fWAR

Tomorrow is Halloween. Do those numbers scare you?

Billy Hamilton’s season in the batter’s box was one of the lowest on record. His .563 OPS was worsted only by Omar Infante’s .552 mark among the 176 big leaguers who saw at least 450 PAs, while his .289 slugging percentage was bested only by Michael Bourn in that group.

Now, I’m not here to here to hate on the pop in Billy’s swing. How many dingers he cracks is of little importance to his overall value, and while I’d love to see him hit more balls into the outfield gaps to let his speed do more talking, breaking down Billy Hamilton by yelling about his slugging percentage is akin to complaining that Pedro Martinez couldn’t locate his knuckleball. What’s most important to him maximizing his ability to produce offensively in Major League Baseball is getting on base, and it was at that he was most disappointing.

His .274 OBP ranked as the fourth worst in that 176 player pool, and while that’s troubling in itself, it’s amplified severely by the intentions of the Cincinnati Reds to bat him leadoff, which he did in 46 games in 2015. The frustration about his inability to get on base is played out in legendary ways, too, as his speed and instincts on the basepaths have already placed him in Reds lore; fortunately, he cut down on being thrown out by leaps and bounds in 2015, and the 57 steals he nabbed fell just one shy of Dee Gordon’s MLB-best 58.

How’d He Do?

Through his first two full seasons in the big leagues, Billy Hamilton has been worth 5.5 fWAR. That easily bests the rookie and sophomore season output of teammates Jay Bruce (2.7 fWAR) and Zack Cozart (4.1), and it compares rather soundly to those of other Reds of note like Adam Dunn (5.7), Todd Frazier (5.7), and Drew Stubbs (5.6). Heck, Brandon Phillips can only lay claim to 5.8 fWAR combined in his first two seasons with the Reds, and that came after four failed seasons with the Cleveland Indians.

So, Billy’s been just fine – on the whole. It’s the glaring differences between the parts of his game that make things stand out so distinctly.

His transition from SS to CF has been smooth and extremely effective, and his defensive prowess in the outfield has him a Rawlings Gold Glove Award finalist in just his second full season in the majors. When actually on base, he stole 57 bases against being thrown out just 8 times, the kind of numbers that make you drool both due to the quantity and the success rate. Had his shoulder capsule not ended his season prematurely, he’d have been on track to flirt with 80 steals on the season, a number that’s remarkable for anyone in today’s game – much less for someone whose on base percentage is one of the absolute worst in the game.

But, you have to look long and hard to find a player at this level who looks more overmatched with a bat in his hands, and even then you may not find one.

The silver lining on his 2015 season at the plate may be his paltry .264 BABIP, since a player with his kind of speed should, in theory, be able to leg out more balls than the average Joe, and therefore we should be able to expect that number to rise back somewhere close to the .301 mark he posted in 2014. He doesn’t hit the ball hard – only 6 players had a hard-hit percentage lower than Billy’s 19.4% mark – but similar players like Jose Iglesias,Dee Gordon, and Ben Revere are among those 6, and each of those sported a BABIP over .330. Put Billy in that kind of range, and you’re looking at a 5+ fWAR CF.

2016 Outlook

A straight stat-to-stat comparison of Billy’s first two years in the majors would make one claim that he declined, and sure, there are several ways in which that could be stated with truth. However, there were many ways in which he made strides improving his overall game, and those trends paired with better health and better batted-ball luck could see him have a breakout 2016 campaign.

For instance, he raised his walk rate from 5.6% up to 6.2% and cut his strikeout rate from 19.1% down to 16.5%, and considering his priorities while at the plate are 1) to get on base and 1A) to put the ball in play to make his speed a factor, both are quite encouraging signs. He’s yet to come near the ridiculous 16.9% from his stellar 2012 AA stint (or even the 12.8% rate from A+ that year), but an uptick is an uptick, and that’s a positive.

Likewise, his discretion on the bases was much improved in 2015, as his success rate on steals rose from 71% to 88%, and it did so despite him taking off more often (.57 steals per game in 2015) than he did last year (.52). That’s a legitimate weapon, one that made him the single most valuable baserunner in the game in 2015, and continued refinement (or, heck, even just replication in this case) should set the table for his 2016 to be a special one.

He’s improving, but there’s still a pile of room for more. And really, that’s what we should have expected given his abrupt call-up despite his struggles in AAA. He’s still just 25 years old, though, and there is time left for him to establish parts of his game that would make him one of the absolute elite players in the league. Maybe, just maybe, that’ll begin to show in 2016.

Chance of making the 2016 Reds roster: 99% (He’ll be in his last pre-arbitration year in 2016, which means he’ll be making a shade over the league minimum. At some $600K, he’s a bargain regardless of how awful his offense becomes, and that’s something I don’t see Walt Jocketty cutting bait on at this point.)

A look back at some trades…

Reds’ recent revisionist trade history
By RijoSaboCaseyWKRP on May 24, 2013, 2:22p 30

At a glance, you can look at the most recent trades the Reds have made with every major league team. And then click through to see the full inter-franchise trade history for each team. It also kind of looks like work.

From there, you can pull out any number of tidbits. Or “trade-bits,” as I like to call them. Ha ha ha, someone save me from this vortex.

Here are a few things I found.

The Active Trades

Some of the trades aren’t “history,” strictly speaking. Even though Wily Mo Pena is out of Western baseball, Bronson Arroyo is still with the Reds. “The Trade” that sent Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to Washington was finally closed out when Bill Bray was non-tendered this offseason.

Here are the open case files. I tried to do a quick up or down vote on each – not based on how trades really should be evaluated (with the info available at the time) – but with golden hindsight:

July 31, 2012: The Kansas City Royals traded Jonathan Broxton to the Cincinnati Reds for Donnie Joseph (minors) and J.C. Sulbaran (minors).

Broxy kind of helped the Reds get to the playoffs – and took some heat off Chapman. And despite holding the bag when Scott Rolen made the critical error in Game 3 of the NLDS, he also pitched 3 scoreless innings in the playoffs.

Donnie Joseph is at the Royals’ AAA Omaha, trying to get his control back. Sulbaran is at KC’s AA affiliate, struggling with pretty much everything so far this season. DoJo is one of seemingly countless bullpen lefties Walt shed in the last few seasons. It would’ve been nice if he’d kept at least one of them (you too, Bill Bray).

This is a win for the Reds, for now.

July 14, 2012: The Cincinnati Reds traded Paul Janish to the Atlanta Braves for Todd Redmond.

This one is pretty hard (and pointless) to score. According to BBRef, Redmond and Janish have both produced the same amount of (negative) WAR: -0.2. But Redmond pitched just 3.1 innings with the Reds and has been with several franchises since the end of 2012. Win: Braves.

April 1, 2012: The Cincinnati Reds traded Juan Francisco to the Atlanta Braves for J.J. Hoover.

If you go strictly by WAR, the Reds take this one. Hoover has pitched in a surprisingly number of high-leverage innings in his young career and looks to have closer potential. In reality, it may be closer to a push. Francisco has walked just 18 times in 308 PAs as a Brave, but his defense has probably gotten better. And he scored a devastating blow in the “trade off” between he and Hoover, hitting a grand slam at GABP in their only match-up earlier this season.

January 25, 2012: The Philadelphia Phillies traded Wilson Valdez to the Cincinnati Reds for Jeremy Horst.

Jeremy Horst’s continued lack of retirement gives an easy win to the Phillies. The lefty Horst pitched 30 very good innings for the Phils last season and might actually be a pretty useful piece had he stayed with the Reds – with Bray gone, Parra injured and Marshall inexplicably thrust into a LOOGy role.

December 23, 2011: The Chicago Cubs traded Sean Marshall to the Cincinnati Reds for Ronald Torreyes (minors), Dave Sappelt and Travis Wood.

Depending on what you thought of Torreyes, this trade looked at the time like a top-notch closer/fireman for a fifth starter with upside. In the meantime, Travis Wood has cashed in on some of that upside, pitching a cut above Mike Leake since the beginning of 2012 (109 ERA+, 212 IP). Sean Marshall, who has very quietly pitched better than anyone in the Reds’ pen aside from Chapman, has been bizarrely saddled in the LOOGy role.

Sappelt was pretty good in a handful of PAs last season, but has netted out to be a replacement level outfielder so far. Torreyes has trended downward as he’s climbed the ladder with the Cubs, but he’s still only 20 and at AA.

This trade would look better if Marshall weren’t in a bit role, but if Travis Wood keeps it up, it’s a loss for the Reds. But Marshall’s appearances in the 2013-2017 World Series should count for something.

December 17, 2011: The San Diego Padres traded Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alonso, Brad Boxberger, Yasmani Grandal and Edinson Volquez.

I think we can all admit that we felt queasy about this one at times last season – if for no other reason than it seemed like the Reds had traded the “wrong catcher.” It’s a deal that should work out very well for both teams, but the Reds are drinking from the top half of the glass. And the wins Latos is giving the Reds as the team’s emerging “co-ace” ought to weigh heavier on a contending team. This has to be an overwhelming win for the Reds, for the time being.

Edinson Volquez is currently pitching at below fifth starter level, though he’s better than that. Yonder Alonso is still trying to find his power stroke in his second season as Padres’ starting 1B. Yasmani Grandal’s future production, at least power-wise, is open for debate, but his 50-game PED suspension is up in a few days. Brad Boxberger has the strikeout stuff to be a major league closer, but is currently at AAA Tucson.

July 26, 2011: Reds trade Jonny Gomes and cash to the Washington Nationals for Bill Rhinehart (minors) and Christopher Manno (minors).

Gomes is with the Red Sox now, Rhinehart was released by the Reds, but Chris Manno is in the in Reds’ org with Pensacola. Gomes was a 6-year free agent at the end of 2011, so it’s somewhat impressive that Walt got a fringe bullpen arm back for him. If Mannocan throw a pitch for the Reds at the major league level, they’ll have “won” this trade.

July 31, 2009: Reds trade Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart to the Toronto Blue Jays for Scott Rolen.

Not sure I want to even tap on this hornet’s nest again. Edwin is the only remaining player around on either team. Scott Rolen certainly made the Reds look like winners in the short-term. It depends on how you sketch out all the alternate realities – could EdE really have stayed at 3B (and on an NL team) – but his mashing over the last season and a half has rewarded the Jays’ patience.

Also, it’s easy to forget that Edwin Encarnacion wasn’t a homegrown talent. He was traded from the Rangers with Ruben Mateo on June 15, 2001 for Rob Bell. We’ll call that one a win.

June 26, 2009: The Cincinnati Reds traded Norris Hopper to the Chicago White Sox for Corky Miller.


July 31, 2008: The Cincinnati Reds traded Ken Griffey and cash to the Chicago White Sox for Nick Masset and Danny Richar.

Where is Nick Masset, though?

Some other things

The longest trade drought the Reds have is with the Giants, dating back to 1995 and Dave Burba.
The team the Reds have traded with the fewest times is the Tampa Bay Rays (3 times). That’s probably a good thing, given that Rays’ players are designed to implode once they leave the Rays.
Though they’re plenty happy to pick up former Cardinals from other teams, the Reds have been loath to deal with the Cardinals recently. The last trade between the two teams was April 21, 2006. The Cardinals purchased Timo Perez from the Reds.
It’s kind of hard to believe that there’s no one left on either team from the Josh Hamilton trade. But also that it was almost 5 years a go.

Neb you are unbelievable. The Reds should hire you

Dusty is now the manager of the Nationals I wish him the best of luck it is a perfect team for him to manage.

Maybe he will convince them to trade for Chapman. I like all the moves so far. I was actually nervous that they would pick up some of these options. That would have been bad.

I have thought about it and I still believe the Reds are going to spend money and go for it. I think in the end the Reds will sign a big free agent pitcher, maybe Cueto to a 4 or 5 yr deal. There is room on the payroll and if Jocketty makes some trades then there is that much more room. They may even move beyond the 115 mil of last year since the TV deal is coming. Bob has never worried about money and only cares about winning, if that is the case then why would you not go after a big free agent. I fear he is going to waste money on bullpen and bench which he has also done over the years. I would rather pay for a starter then put any money in the bench or bullpen. These can and always should be filled with your minor league players ready to move up.

Agree with a high power starter. Personally, I am not expecting much out of Bailey until late in the season if at all in 2016. Other than that stay with the youth movement. On the downside the Reds seem to have difficulty with player development and it seems their young guys are always considered not quite ready.

Bailey will be on and off the disabled list for the next four years. Who is gods name decided to give him big money should be ashamed. He’ll be a rodeo star and allstar at cow tipping.

I don’t expect anything fro
Bailey period . He’s nothing more than a .500 pitcher .

Bailey certainly isnt an ace. I think this offseason should be a make it or break it one for Jocketty. We are so far behind the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs there need to be some serious acquisition and turnover of driftwood from the roster

The problem is that he’s getting # 1 money .

According to Reds website we have 6 openings on the 40 man roster as there are 34 players listed on it. Let’s see how we fill those openings by opening day.

Probably all rule 5 guys or at least a few, Stephenson for sure

Just saying this as well. Cat is out of the bag. Saw Bronson Arroyo with my own two eyes at CVG Tuesday. He’s coming back. As an asst pitching coach. If we released Sam Lecure, how can we expect anything positive from a 39 year old guy coming off Tommy John. God i hope we don’t waste a roster spot on him. AKA Jason Marquis.

Hope you are correct. Bronson is another class act; even tempered and get-it-done attitude. Great presence for young pitching hopefuls.

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