Where things stand, 9/23

Here are how the postseason scenarios are shaping up for the Reds heading into Monday night:

Cincinnati can clinch a playoff spot if they beat New York AND St. Louis beats Washington. BOTH outcomes must occur for Cincinnati to clinch outright.

Pittsburgh can also clinch a playoff spot if they beat Chicago AND St. Louis beats Washington. Just like above, BOTH outcomes must occur for Pittsburgh to clinch outright.

If the season ended today:

NL Wild Card: Reds vs. Pirates (home field TBD since both clubs have the same record and their season series is tied 8-8 with three games to play)

NL Division Series ‘A’: NL Wild Card winner (CIN/PIT) at Atlanta

NL Division Series ‘B’: LA Dodgers at St. Louis

ADDENDUM: clinching a playoff spot tonight does not stop the postseason chase. The Reds and Pirates are still 2 games behind the first-place Cardinals. The NL Central title is attainable…tough…but attainable. Of course, getting a home Wild Card game is very possible with 6 games remaining.

10 Comments

Reds just need to win out…. The rest will take care of itself…

Simply said…any combination of a Reds win and a Washington loss that adds up to 2 and the same with Pittsburgh and Washington. The magic number is 2 for both teams. It probably be safe to say that the Reds & Pirates are in. We now wait on St. Louis and I’m not sure they will win the Central. Their magic number to win the Central is 5. Could come down to the last day.

I hope you won’t be mad at me if I say I hope the Reds don’t clinch tonight (yes, I want the Reds to win, but I also want the Nats to win, or rather, the Cards to lose). I see nothing wrong with the Reds clinching a playoff spot tomorrow.

THE REDS NEED TO WIN OUT…. The Cards need to lose and lose and lose… I would rather the Reds be division champs…. Let the Pirates and Cards have the one game playoff… This is the BEST Scenario of all…. JUST WIN OUT…

Well Max, looks like we are wrong again. Won’t be in first place on the 23rd. How about the 28th?
Curt

I’m gonna say this now, because if I say it later, it will look like hindsight. I THINK ITS A HUGE MISTAKE TO GIVE REYNOLDS ANOTHER START AND PUSH THE ROTATION BACK A DAY TO FACE PITTSBURGH.

And that’s nothing against Reynolds. It’s great to hope the Reds win out, but you also have to be realistic and prepare to play the wild card game next Tuesday. And if you do hold out hope of winning the division, a tie is at least as likely as winning outright, which means a playoff game next Monday, with the Tuesday wild card as a fall-back “second chance” to get in.

If the Reds stay on rotation and start Latos on normal rest Wednesday, he would be ready to go Monday or Tuesday in those critical games. If you push him back to Friday to face the Pirates, which seems to be the current plan, he can’t go Monday and is on short rest (which he hasn’t done all year, if ever) on Tuesday.

It’s great to hope for more, but realistically this weekend’s series is probably playing for home field in the wild card game. Reds could sweep the Pirates this weekend, lose to them on Tuesday, and its still over. Personally, I think having a rested Latos for that game, rather than a short-rest Latos, Leake, or who-knows-what-you-get Cueto is more valuable than being at home in that game. And what if they manage to tie the Cardinals and get essentially two chances to play into the playoffs? Then you have to choose 2 of those 3 options.

And it very well may be that the chances of Leake beating the Pirates are at least as good as the chances of Reynolds beating the Mets, which is really the trade-off that’s being made.

What are the season series records for the reds vs. cards? and the cards vs. pirates? Just thinking tiebreaker/homefield advantage for wildcard game.

Reds went 8-11 against the Cards and they are 8-8 against the Pirates with three to play.
Curt

Curt, I’m out of the prophesy business, but you and I, we kept the faith this season. I haven’t given up. This year’s Reds have never shown the kind of magic that makes a league or world series winner; but it’s not too late. When they won in it ’90, they weren’t the best team in the NL or in baseaball. They ** should ** have lost to the A’s, but swept them instead. With Hamilton cast in the role of Billy Bates, maybe they can find the magic this October. What scares me is that one-game play-in next Tuesday. Go Reds!

MAXBLUE:
I agree, and well said… If the reds WIN OUT that is our best scenario… Perhaps the pirates and Cards can both lose 4…then we do not have that damn one game playoff… WIN OUT and pray for losses by the bucs and cards. Say amen flock!!!

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