The percentages

From time to time, I like to take peek at Baseball Prospectus and see how they have calculated their playoff odds. As you might have gathered, postseason berths are looking good for the top three clubs in the NL Central.

Just for fun, I’ve posted them. As of today, based on the simulations of BP:

The Pirates have a 98.9 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 54.3 percent chance of winning the division.

The Cardinals have a 96.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 27 percent chance of winning the division.

The Reds have a 93.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 18.7 percent chance of winning the division.

Anyone encouraged or discouraged?

While the Reds have two games vs. the Cubs and four more vs. the Brewers on this trip, Pittsburgh and St. Louis begin a three-game series tonight. Click here for an overview of that series.

4 Comments

Mark…I check those numbers every week or so. They don’t depress me as much as our hitting does, which has literally created those percentages. I have a nightmare that is recurring; it is of a one game playoff with the Reds leading 2-0 in the bottom of the eighth. I wake up in a pool of sweat, realizing the bullpen failed and we lost the game and the season by a score of 3-2. Does it matter whether the team is the Pirates or Cards?…why would that matter which team we will be watching as they move on. This scenario had best be nothing but a dream.

What are the percentages for the Pirates winning the division after the extra inning loss tonight? The Reds are rolling right now. It really does seem that Ludwick has an effect on the teams attitude. Keep it up Redlegs.

Pirates have the most road games left out of the three contenders (24). The Cardinals play their last 19 games against teams with losing records. So ya, root for the Pirates the next two days.
Curt

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